Inferring Aerosol Forcing from Surface Temperature
نویسنده
چکیده
The Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 0.8 K over 3 the last 100 years partly due to human activities. If not for the poorly un-4 derstood radiative effects of aerosols, one would have been able to better use 5 the observed warming to constrain the all-important transient climate re-6 sponse (TCR, the pace of the warming caused by a continuous buildup of 7 greenhouse gases). Here we show that it is feasible to infer the historical aerosol 8 forcing and subsequently TCR from the surface temperature record by ex-9 ploiting the seasonality difference between the aerosol and greenhouse gas 10 forcings. Our analysis suggests that the seasonally-varying aerosol forcing 11 may have played a crucial role in causing the Northern Hemisphere (NH) win-12 ter to warm at a faster pace than the NH summer – a distinct feature of the 13
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